A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
